The World Bank (WB) has forecasted that Vietnam will lead the Asia-Pacific region in GDP growth at the rate of 6.3% in 2026, according to its latest “Global Economic Prospects” report.
Vietnam’s GDP growth is expected to reach 6.6% in 2025, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the WB’s October 2024 forecast. Although the 2026 forecast of 6.3% represents a 0.2 percentage point decrease from previous estimates, Vietnam is still projected to outpace other regional economies, including Mongolia (6.1%), the Philippines (6%), Thailand (5.1%), and China (4%).
The WB forecasts a gradual decline in East Asia and Pacific (EAP) growth, dropping from 4.6% in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026 due to China’s economic slowdown. Excluding China, the region is projected to maintain a stronger growth rate of 4.7%, supported by robust domestic demand.
In 2024, EAP economies (excluding China) experienced growth of 4.8%, up from 4.3% in 2023, driven by trade recovery, domestic tourism, and increasing internal demand. Vietnam stood out as a key growth driver in the region due to its strong export capabilities.
Despite its positive outlook, the WB warned of potential risks, including global trade uncertainties, China’s slowdown, rising geopolitical tensions, and persistent global inflation. Additionally, climate change-related natural disasters are expected to challenge the region’s growth prospects.
On a global scale, the WB predicts economic growth will stabilize at 2.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026.
BY VIETNAMMANUAL TEAM